What is brier?

Every market is shown twice — once with the Kalshi price, once with the Polymarket price. When they disagree, you can buy on the cheaper venue and (often) sell or hedge on the other.

We currently track 520 markets across both venues, 520 of which are paired across both Kalshi and Polymarket. 54 of those currently have a meaningful price gap of 2pp or more.

A dislocation is when the same outcome is priced differently on two venues. If Kalshi prices “Trump impeached by 2027” at 18¢ and Polymarket prices it at 25¢, that’s a 7pp dislocation — and a possible arbitrage if you trust both venues will settle the same way.

We measure spreads in “pp” (percentage points). A 2pp spread is small but real; 10pp+ is rare and usually means something interesting (different resolution criteria, stale quotes, or a real edge).

Prediction markets are fragmenting. Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, US users) and Polymarket (offshore, crypto-native) both have markets on the same events but rarely the same prices. Today you’d need to flip between tabs to compare. We do it for you.

This is the consumer side of a broader bet: prediction markets need cross-venue infrastructure — best execution, portfolio margin, alerts — the way equities have brokers and ATSs. We’re starting with comparison shopping and going from there.

• Prices are pulled from public APIs and may be a few minutes stale. The timestamp at the top of every page shows when we last refreshed.
• Kalshi and Polymarket use different resolution rules, deadlines, and KYC. A 5pp dislocation isn’t always free money — sometimes it reflects real differences in what the markets actually resolve on.
• This is not financial advice. Read each venue’s terms before trading.

Found a wrong pairing, a market we’re missing, or want to chat? Reach out via xodn.io.