Other

Will California billionaire wealth tax pass? — Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? — In 2026

40.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

41¢

bid 39¢ · ask 42¢

24h vol $236

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

38¢

bid 37¢ · ask 39¢

24h vol $24

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?' ↔ 'Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.54).

Kalshi ticker

KXCAWEALTHTAX-26

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x9345d5142a67f554…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.