Other
Will California billionaire wealth tax pass? — Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass? — In 2026
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
34.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?' ↔ 'Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.54).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAWEALTHTAX-26
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x9345d5142a67f554…
Resolves 11/3/2026
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