Other
Berlin state election winner? — Will AfD win the 2026 Berlin state election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
21.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Berlin State Election Winner' ↔ 'Berlin state election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.50).
Kalshi ticker
KXBERLINSTATE-26SEP20-AFD
Resolves 9/20/2027
Polymarket condition
0x8aaaca6ea5c037d3…
Resolves 9/20/2026
Pro
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