Politics / Elections

Tallahassee Mayoral Election — Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election? — Al Lawson

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

1.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

3¢

bid 0¢ · ask 5¢

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Best price

Polymarket

0¢

bid — · ask 0¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-ALAW

Resolves 8/18/2027

Polymarket condition

0x78b532aef17ee0ff…

Resolves 8/18/2026

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