Politics / Elections
Acre Governor winner? — Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
1.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.5pp dislocation
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Acre Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Acre Governor winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 1.00, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXACREGOV-26OCT04-ARIC
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0x266938860633d58a…
Resolves 10/5/2026
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