Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Will Aldo Rebelo finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

1.6%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

3¢

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Polymarket

0¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-AREB

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x6b4d9574d789228b…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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