Politics / Elections
Ottawa mayoral election winner? — Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
22.9%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.4pp dislocation
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P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Ottawa mayoral election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXOTTAWAMAYOR-26OCT26-ALAW
Resolves 10/26/2027
Polymarket condition
0x7fe9902db2894b48…
Resolves 10/26/2026
Pro
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