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Los Angeles County Sheriff winner? — Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff general election? — Alex Villanueva
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
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Mapping notes
Event pair: '2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff Election Winner' ↔ 'Los Angeles County Sheriff winner?' (score 0.83, outcome match 0.75, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXLASHERIFF-26-AVIL
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xaeb2b83e57e3fe2a…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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