Politics / Elections
Minas Gerais Governor winner? — Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
12.1%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.8pp dislocation
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P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Minas Gerais Governor winner?' (score 0.67, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXMINASGOV-26OCT04-AKAL
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0x2153374302d7d3fe…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
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