Politics / Elections
Hamilton mayoral election winner? — Will Andrea Horwath win the 2026 Hamilton mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
31.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.5pp dislocation
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Hamilton Mayoral Election' ↔ 'Hamilton mayoral election winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.80, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXHAMILTONMAYOR-26OCT26-AHOR
Resolves 10/26/2027
Polymarket condition
0x4bafd8b3196fcf0e…
Resolves 10/27/2026
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