Politics / Elections
CA-34 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-34 House election? — Angela Gonzales-Torres
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
47.9%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range6.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-34 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.67).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAELECTION-2634-AGON
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xe49199a43e00fc93…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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