Politics / Elections
CA-29 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-29 House election? — Angélica María Dueñas
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
13.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CA-29 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-29 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.67).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAELECTION-2629-ADUE
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x7e02b2a9d183243f…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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