Politics / Elections
Ljubljana mayoral election winner? — Will Anton Rop win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
11.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range6.0pp dislocation
K
P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Ljubljana mayoral election winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 1.00, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXLJUBLJANAMAYOR-26NOV15-AROP
Resolves 11/15/2027
Polymarket condition
0xe371b7c6ccff9df2…
Resolves 11/16/2026
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