Other

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? — Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ?

21.9%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

19¢

bid 14¢ · ask 23¢

24h vol $32

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

24¢

bid 17¢ · ask 31¢

24h vol $50

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Which companies will the US take a stake in?' ↔ 'Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.43).

Kalshi ticker

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-IONQ

Resolves 1/1/2027

Polymarket condition

0x3e318837fa58267e…

Resolves 12/31/2026

Pro

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