Other

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? — Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?

11.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

9¢

bid 8¢ · ask 10¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

14¢

bid 10¢ · ask 17¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Which companies will the US take a stake in?' ↔ 'Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LLY

Resolves 1/1/2027

Polymarket condition

0xe5ea729b91b19f09…

Resolves 12/31/2026

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