Other

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? — Will Arthur be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

0.6%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range30.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 1¢

24h vol $10,353

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

31¢

bid 4¢ · ask 58¢

24h vol $41

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?' ↔ 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.56).

Kalshi ticker

KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-ART

Resolves 12/1/2026

Polymarket condition

0xf715853b68c6c34d…

Resolves 12/1/2026

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