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Argentina presidential election winner? — Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 371 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
30.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Argentina Presidential Election Winner' ↔ 'Argentina presidential election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXARGENTINAPRES-27-AKIC
Resolves 10/30/2028
Polymarket condition
0xf35a561cedd2aab1…
Resolves 10/25/2027
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