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Argentina presidential election winner? — Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 373 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

42.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range6.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

37¢

bid 34¢ · ask 39¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

43¢

bid 42¢ · ask 43¢

24h vol $647

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Argentina Presidential Election Winner' ↔ 'Argentina presidential election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXARGENTINAPRES-27-AKIC

Resolves 10/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0xf35a561cedd2aab1…

Resolves 10/24/2027

Pro

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