Geopolitics

Will United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? — Before 2027

6.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

7¢

bid 7¢ · ask 8¢

24h vol $4,291

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

5¢

bid 4¢ · ask 5¢

24h vol $1,182

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?' ↔ 'Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.45).

Kalshi ticker

KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26

Resolves 1/1/2027

Polymarket condition

0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb…

Resolves 12/31/2026

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