Geopolitics

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

13.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.9pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

9¢

bid 5¢ · ask 12¢

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Polymarket

14¢

bid 13¢ · ask 14¢

24h vol $1,667

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?' ↔ 'Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.62).

Kalshi ticker

KXABRAHAMQ-27-JAN01

Resolves 1/1/2027

Polymarket condition

0x95783b62c693ea42…

Resolves 12/31/2026

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