Politics / Elections

Alaska Governor winner? (Person) — Who will win the governorship in Alaska? — Bernadette Wilson

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

24.6%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

25¢

bid 23¢ · ask 26¢

24h vol $355

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

30¢

bid 29¢ · ask 31¢

24h vol $5

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Alaska Governor Election Winner ' ↔ 'Alaska Governor winner? (Person)' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXGOVAK-26-BWIL

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x9aba5bf074182d80…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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