Other
Nigerian presidential election winner? — Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election? — Bola Tinubu
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 408 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
62.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Nigerian Presidential Election Winner' ↔ 'Nigerian presidential election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.75).
Kalshi ticker
KXPRESNIGERIA-27-BTIN
Resolves 2/28/2028
Polymarket condition
0xdb66349b5658e7ce…
Resolves 1/16/2027
Pro
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