Politics / Elections
Mississauga mayoral election winner? — Will Bonnie Crombie win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
29.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Mississauga mayoral election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 1.00, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXMISSISSAUGAMAYOR-26OCT26-BCRO
Resolves 10/26/2027
Polymarket condition
0x6d413fc2218e536a…
Resolves 10/27/2026
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