Geopolitics

Next French presidential election winner? — Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 397 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

2.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

2¢

bid 2¢ · ask 3¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

3¢

bid 3¢ · ask 3¢

24h vol $1,171

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Next French Presidential Election' ↔ 'Next French presidential election winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXFRENCHPRES-27-BRET

Resolves 5/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0xc32a544f65e3a8ff…

Resolves 4/30/2027

Pro

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