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Berlin state election winner? — Will BSW win the 2026 Berlin state election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

1.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

3¢

bid 1¢ · ask 5¢

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Best price

Polymarket

0¢

bid — · ask 0¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Berlin State Election Winner' ↔ 'Berlin state election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXBERLINSTATE-26SEP20-BSW

Resolves 9/20/2027

Polymarket condition

0x04941dd5ebc58418…

Resolves 9/20/2026

Pro

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