Politics / Elections

MI-01 Democratic nominee? — Will Callie Barr be the Democratic nominee for MI-01?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

77.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

73¢

bid 70¢ · ask 75¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

77¢

bid 76¢ · ask 78¢

24h vol $258

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'MI-01 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXMIPRIMARY-01D26-CBAR

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x8beae7622a3a657b…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

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