Politics / Elections

WA-05 primary: who will advance? — Will Carmela Conroy advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

79.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range9.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

86¢

bid 83¢ · ask 88¢

24h vol $70

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

76¢

bid 71¢ · ask 81¢

24h vol $120

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WA-05 Primary Winners' ↔ 'WA-05 primary: who will advance?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.40).

Kalshi ticker

KXWAPRIMARY-0526-CCON

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0xe9bde19a38ce8a7e…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

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