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Berlin state election winner? — Will CDU win the 2026 Berlin state election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

26.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

22¢

bid 16¢ · ask 27¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

27¢

bid 26¢ · ask 27¢

24h vol $888

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Berlin State Election Winner' ↔ 'Berlin state election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXBERLINSTATE-26SEP20-CDU

Resolves 9/20/2027

Polymarket condition

0x71a21eab87c301a5…

Resolves 9/20/2026

Pro

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