Politics / Elections

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner? — Will CDU win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

1.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.9pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

3¢

bid 0¢ · ask 6¢

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Best price

Polymarket

0¢

bid — · ask 0¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner' ↔ 'Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXMECKLENBURGVORPOMMERN-26SEP20-CDU

Resolves 9/20/2027

Polymarket condition

0x92c63b34ab2de665…

Resolves 9/20/2026

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