Politics / Elections
Taipei mayoral election winner? — Will Chiang Wan-an win the 2026 Taipei mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
72.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Taipei Mayor Election Winner' ↔ 'Taipei mayoral election winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.75, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXTAIPEIMAYOR-26NOV28-CWAN
Resolves 11/28/2027
Polymarket condition
0xbf7a9da08326512f…
Resolves 11/29/2026
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