Entertainment

Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie — Will Claire Danes win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

1.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

4¢

bid 1¢ · ask 7¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

1¢

bid 1¢ · ask 2¢

24h vol $233

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie' ↔ 'Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie' (score 0.54, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-CLA

Resolves 9/14/2027

Polymarket condition

0xd7fedb09b20bddd5…

Resolves 9/14/2026

Pro

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