Politics / Elections

CA-11 House winner? — Who will win the CA-11 House election? — Connie Chan

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

32.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

34¢

bid 32¢ · ask 36¢

24h vol $63

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

31¢

bid 28¢ · ask 33¢

24h vol $64

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-11 House winner? ' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.75).

Kalshi ticker

KXCA11PERSON-26-CCHA

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x82f8f69b056808de…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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