Politics / Elections

Cook Islands general election winner? — Will Cook Islands Party win the 2026 Cook Islands general election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

88.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

85¢

bid 82¢ · ask 87¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

89¢

bid 88¢ · ask 89¢

24h vol $1,003

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Party Winner' ↔ 'Cook Islands general election winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.40).

Kalshi ticker

KXCOOKPARLI-26AUG12-CIP

Resolves 8/12/2027

Polymarket condition

0xf7ecedc748ce2fb3…

Resolves 8/12/2026

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