Politics / Elections
Cook Islands general election winner? — Will Cook Islands United Party win the 2026 Cook Islands general election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
3.4%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.3pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Party Winner' ↔ 'Cook Islands general election winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.50).
Kalshi ticker
KXCOOKPARLI-26AUG12-CIUP
Resolves 8/12/2027
Polymarket condition
0xf28e325cb130b27a…
Resolves 8/12/2026
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