Politics / Elections
FL-20 Democratic nominee? — Will Dale Holness be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 443 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
1.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'FL-20 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXFLPRIMARY-20D26-DHOL
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xbd1c8bd15d18f040…
Resolves 8/18/2026
Pro
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