Politics / Elections

Nebraska Senate winner? — Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

28.4%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

31¢

bid 30¢ · ask 31¢

24h vol $688

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

26¢

bid 24¢ · ask 27¢

24h vol $507

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Nebraska Senate Election Winner ' ↔ 'Nebraska Senate winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

SENATENE-26-DOSB

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x5554740293afa7aa…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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