Politics / Elections
Nebraska Senate winner? — Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
28.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Nebraska Senate Election Winner ' ↔ 'Nebraska Senate winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
SENATENE-26-DOSB
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x5554740293afa7aa…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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