Politics / Elections
Tallahassee Mayoral Election — Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election? — Daryl Parks
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
22.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range6.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-DPAR
Resolves 8/18/2027
Polymarket condition
0x992e3f200f3803bf…
Resolves 8/18/2026
Pro
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