Politics / Elections

WA-05 primary: who will advance? — Will David Womack advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

3.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.9pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

6¢

bid 3¢ · ask 9¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 2¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WA-05 Primary Winners' ↔ 'WA-05 primary: who will advance?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.40).

Kalshi ticker

KXWAPRIMARY-0526-DWOM

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x0e278ebb084fe80b…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.