Politics / Elections

FL-20 Democratic nominee? — Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 443 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

68.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

72¢

bid 70¢ · ask 73¢

24h vol $1,934

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

67¢

bid 65¢ · ask 69¢

24h vol $4,774

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'FL-20 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXFLPRIMARY-20D26-DSCH

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x2ddcca8c8e72acac…

Resolves 8/18/2026

Pro

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