Politics / Elections
MO-03 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for MO-03? — Democratic party
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'MO-03 House Election Winner' ↔ 'MO-03 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSERACE-MO03-26-D
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x9041a41d6d08dc92…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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