Politics / Elections
DE-AL House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for DE-AL? — Democratic party
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
95.7%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.3pp dislocation
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P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'DE-AL House Election Winner' ↔ 'DE-AL House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSERACE-DEAL-26-D
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x178a852de1dbd4f5…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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