Politics / Elections

WI-06 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for WI-06? — Democratic party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

10.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

7¢

bid 5¢ · ask 9¢

24h vol $378

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

12¢

bid 11¢ · ask 14¢

24h vol $482

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WI-06 House Election Winner' ↔ 'WI-06 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-WI06-26-D

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x4177cc7d5bc28392…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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