Politics / Elections

WA-09 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for WA-09? — Democratic party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

92.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.4pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

91¢

bid 89¢ · ask 93¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

94¢

bid 93¢ · ask 94¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WA-09 House Election Winner' ↔ 'WA-09 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-WA09-26-D

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0xe4ce5a89a9c4bc69…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.