Politics / Elections
TN-09 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for TN-09? — Democratic party
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
15.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'TN-09 House Election Winner' ↔ 'TN-09 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSERACE-TN09-26-D
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x90928b0c5ed8a091…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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