Politics / Elections

MI-01 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for MI-01? — Democratic party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

14.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

12¢

bid 10¢ · ask 14¢

24h vol $550

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

16¢

bid 15¢ · ask 16¢

24h vol $918

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MI-01 House Election Winner' ↔ 'MI-01 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-MI01-26-D

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0xfb76d3f971fb5b3d…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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