Politics / Elections

MA-05 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for MA-05? — Democratic party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

94.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

98¢

bid 96¢ · ask 99¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

94¢

bid 94¢ · ask 95¢

24h vol $310

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MA-05 House Election Winner' ↔ 'MA-05 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-MA05-26-D

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x6b76635a319a2dbb…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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