Politics / Elections
CT-03 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for CT-03? — Democratic party
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
95.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.4pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CT-03 House Election Winner' ↔ 'CT-03 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSERACE-CT03-26-D
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xc1c536f1d71e1a8d…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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