Politics / Elections
LA-02 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for LA-02? — Democratic party
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
94.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'LA-02 House Election Winner' ↔ 'LA-02 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSERACE-LA02-26-D
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x917e5c29c22c69ad…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.