Politics / Elections

CT-04 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for CT-04? — Democratic party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

93.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.4pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

96¢

bid 94¢ · ask 98¢

24h vol $40

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

94¢

bid 93¢ · ask 94¢

24h vol $326

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'CT-04 House Election Winner' ↔ 'CT-04 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-CT04-26-D

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0xec1543346319ad6b…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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