Politics / Elections

MA-09 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for MA-09? — Democratic party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

95.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.9pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

97¢

bid 96¢ · ask 99¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

94¢

bid 93¢ · ask 94¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MA-09 House Election Winner' ↔ 'MA-09 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-MA09-26-D

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x75ee75d8e5b221e4…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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