Politics / Elections

WA-05 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for WA-05? — Democratic party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

14.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.3pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

13¢

bid 12¢ · ask 14¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

15¢

bid 12¢ · ask 19¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WA-05 House Election Winner' ↔ 'WA-05 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-WA05-26-D

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x213505cf51289b85…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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