Geopolitics
Taiwan Local Elections winner? — Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
11.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: '2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner' ↔ 'Taiwan Local Elections winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.40, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXTAIWANLOCAL-26NOV28-DPP
Resolves 11/28/2027
Polymarket condition
0xea3b1d0099085f43…
Resolves 11/29/2026
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